Traffic forecasts
These figures derive from the traffic forecast, "Fehmarn Belt Forecast 2002 Final report", from April 2003, compiled by the Fehmarnbelt Traffic Consortium (FTC) on behalf of the Danish and German Ministries of Transport.
Experience shows that it takes time for the market to adjust to new traffic links. Thus the financial analyses incorporate a four-year adjustment period for road traffic before the increase in traffic is realized.
Therefore, the financial analyses are based on conservative assumptions andrepresent a cautious estimate. The financial analyses are based directly on the forecast, although in the calculations, the volume of traffic – and hence the income – has been reduced for the first five years after commissioning to take account of the adjustment period.
Average annual growth of 2.3 per cent in ferry traffic is forecasted up until the fixed link is opened. Estimates put the annual traffic growth rate for the first 25 years after opening at 1.7 per cent.
Traffic forecasts used in the Fehmarnbelt financial analysis:
Vehicles per day |
2020* |
2010** |
Cars |
6.800 |
4.415 |
Buses |
100 |
82 |
Trucks |
1.100 |
963 |
Total |
8.000 |
5.460 |
Rail traffic per day |
2015*** |
Passengers |
3.800 |
Freight cars |
1.300 |
* The Fixed Link is scheduled to open in 2021. The forecast is for traffic in the first 12 months.
** Existing ferry traffic
*** No adjustment was made to the rail traffic figures for the currently scheduled opening year (2021); the originally expected opening year, 2015, that was used in the 2003 forecast was maintained.
Forecast for rail traffic
By 2025, Femern A/S expects – based on forecasts consolidated between the responsible authorities in Germany and Denmark – that a total of 78 freight trains and 40 passenger trains daily will cross the fixed link.
Traffic jumps
Experience from other fixed links – for example, the Great Belt and the Øresund – has shown that traffic increases considerably when a new fixed link replaces ferry traffic. This so-called "traffic jump" is caused by the sudden introduction of new crossing alternatives, which save time and result in greater accessibility. In the first year after the opening of the fixed link across the Øresund, the traffic volume rose by 61 per cent. For the link across the Great Belt, the traffic jump was 127 per cent. Conservative predictions for the Fehmarnbelt Fixed Link put the traffic jump at about 40 per cent.
The traffic forecasts assume that ferries will cease operating between Rødby and Puttgarden after the opening of the fixed link. However, this decision is the prerogative of the ferry companies.
