Environment & Traffic
Traffic forecasts
Traffic predictions indicate that approximately 10,000 cars per day can be expected to use the fixed link over Fehmarnbelt in 2018, the year that it opens.
This figure derives from the traffic forecast, “Fehmarn Belt Forecast 2002 Final report”, from April 2003, compiled by the Fehmarnbelt Traffic Consortium (FTC) on behalf of the Danish and German Ministries of Transport.
Experience shows that it takes time for the market to adjust to new traffic links. Thus the financial analyses incorporate a four-year adjustment period for road traffic before the increase in traffic is realised.
Therefore, the financial analyses are based on conservative assumptions, and, as such, represent a cautious estimate. Thus the financial analyses are based in the actual forecast, although in the calculations the volume of traffic – and thus the income – have been reduced for the first five years after commissioning to take account of the adjustment period.
Traffic forecasts used in the Femernbelt financial analysis:
Vehicles per day |
2018* |
2008** | |
Cars |
6,600 |
4,850 | |
Buses |
100 |
100 | |
Trucks |
1,000 |
1,000 | |
Total |
7,700 |
5,950 |
Rail traffic per day |
2015* | |
Passengers |
3,800 | |
Freight cars |
1,300 |
* No adjustment was made to the rail traffic figures for the currently planned opening year (2018); the originally expected opening year, 2015, that was used in the 2003 forecast was maintained. **Existing ferry traffic |
Annual growth of 2.6% in ferry traffic is forecast up until the fixed link is opened. For the first 25 years after opening, an annual growth in traffic volume of 1.7% is estimated. This is a very conservative estimate. Between 1970 and 2008, the average growth rate on the Rødby-Puttgarden route was 3.9 %. In its opening year, the link is expected to be used by an average of 7,700 vehicles and 3,800 rail passengers per day. Five years after opening – and after the 4-year start-up phase – the number of vehicles per day will average 10,300. In comparison, ferries transported a total of 5,950 vehicles per day in 2008.
Traffic jumps
Experience from other fixed links – for example, the Great Belt and the Øresund – have shown that traffic increases considerably when a new fixed link replaces ferry traffic. This so-called “traffic jump” is caused by the sudden introduction of new crossing alternatives which save time and result in greater accessibility. In the first year after the opening of the fixed link across the Øresund, the traffic volume rose by 61%. For the link across the Great Belt, the traffic jump was 127%. Conservative predictions for the Fehmarnbelt Fixed Link assume a traffic jump of about 40%.
The traffic forecasts assume that ferries will cease operating between Rødby and Puttgarden after the opening of the fixed link. However, this decision is the prerogative of the ferry companies.
