Traffic

On the so-called "bird flight line" between Puttgarden and Rødby, around two million vehicles are currently transported each year on a total of five ferries, along with a number of passenger trains (Copenhagen-Lübeck-Hamburg).

The fixed link across the Fehmarnbelt will hold a number of advantages for public travel in terms of speed and flexibility. Ferry waiting times will be eliminated and the trip via the fixed link will be significantly faster, taking only about 15 minutes. A fixed link will cut the travelling time by approximately one hour, with train journeys between Hamburg and Copenhagen taking around 3 hours against the current approx. 4½ hours.

Rail-based freight traffic between Germany and Denmark has been handled through the bridge across the Great Belt since 1997. In comparison to the route through Jutland, Funen and the Great Belt, the route across the Fehmarnbelt will be 160 km shorter. Together with the Øresund Bridge between Denmark and Sweden, the Fehmarnbelt Fixed Link will represent an important node in the Northern and Central European motorway and rail networks.

According to the traffic forecast, the fixed link across the Fehmarnbelt will carry an average of 8,000 vehicles and 3,800 train passengers per day in its opening year. In 2010 the Rødby-Puttgarden ferries carried approx. 5,500 vehicles and 1,000 train passengers per day.

Traffic across the Fehmarnbelt

Many vehicles and several trains are already crossing the belt today: in 2010, average daily traffic on the Rødby-Puttgarden ferries amounted to just under 1,000 rail passengers and 5,460 vehicles. These figures are forecasted to rise as the opening of the fixed link approaches.

The main source of traffic across the belt is cars. In 2010, car traffic between Rødby and Puttgarden accounted for 81 per cent of the total traffic; freight traffic accounted for just under 18 per cent and coach traffic under one per cent. The same trend applies to the distribution of traffic on the Gedser-Rostock ferry services, whereas the proportion of freight traffic predominates on the routes between Trelleborg in Sweden and Germany.

Apart from a few individual years, traffic between Rødby and Puttgarden has been rising steadily since the late 1990s. The Gedser-Rostock ferries and the Trelleborg services to Germany have also experienced traffic growth.

Cars account for the highest growth in traffic on the Rødby-Puttgarden crossing. From 2000 to 2010, car traffic on the crossing increased by approx. 36 per cent, which corresponds to an annual growth of just under three per cent. Freight traffic has increased by 25 per cent and coach traffic has declined by one per cent.

Part of the traffic growth on the ferry crossings between Denmark and Germany is attributable to the opening of the Øresund Fixed Link in 2000, which resulted in a change of traffic patterns, including the creation of increased traffic across the Fehmarnbelt.

Viewed over a longer period from 1991 to 2009, the increase in traffic between Rødby and Puttgarden has been more moderate with an average increase at 1.7 per cent per annum.

Forecasts for future traffic

Traffic across the belt is predicted to continue increasing in the years up to the opening of the Fehmarnbelt Fixed Link, and in 2020, rail traffic is predicted to amount to 3,800 train passengers and 75 per cent of all freight transported by rail between Scandinavia and the continent. On the road, the forecast puts the average number of vehicles using the link at 8,000/day.

Once the fixed link opens, road traffic is expected to increase by 7–8 per cent per annum in the first five years. A similar traffic pattern was observed following the opening of the Øresund bridge.

After the first five years of increases, traffic is expected to level off, and the annual traffic growth is then assumed to be 1.7 per cent per annum up to 2043. After that, traffic is assumed to be stable.

There may be many reasons for crossing the Fehmarnbelt, and much may yet change before the fixed link opens to traffic. According to the 2002 forecasts, business and holiday traffic is expected to account for the highest volume, while commuter traffic between the two parts of the region will account for a minimal share of the traffic. Holidays, short breaks and visits to family and friends are expected to account for around two-thirds of the traffic.